Rates up $3.55 with October quoted 25 to 44% higher, and Memphis forecast below zero by Aug 7

The forward curve prices October 25 to 44% higher

The forward view leads with USDA's own quotes, not our model. USDA publishes downbound rates as a percent of the benchmark tariff at three horizons: current, one month out, three months out. For the week ending July 28, every one of the seven origin regions is quoted higher at every horizon, and the three-month leg carries a 25 to 44% premium over current. The steepest is Cairo to Memphis at 44.1%; the highest absolute quote is Twin Cities October at 1,018% of tariff.

These are percent-of-tariff quotes by origin region, a different unit and geography from the dollar-per-ton table above, and the two are never combined. What they say is direct: sellers of forward freight are asking late-October prices 25 to 44% above today's, with the largest premiums on the origins closest to the shallow water.

River conditions

Mississippi River at Memphis, TN (NWS MEMT1): 3.6 ft stage on July 31, down from 15.6 ft a month earlier, forecast below 0 ft around August 7 on its way to −1.9 ft.

Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO (NWS EADM7): 2.8 ft stage on July 31, after a 15.4-ft fall in 19 days. The overnight forecast bottoms at −0.1 ft on August 11 and holds near gauge zero through August 14; the previous day's issuance had fallen to −1.1 ft, so the path is revising daily.

Mississippi River at Vicksburg, MS (NWS VCKM6): 18.5 ft stage on July 31, down from 34.3 ft a month earlier, with the July 30 forecast running to 12.0 ft by August 21.

A stage below gauge zero is a reading against the datum, not a closure. St. Louis and Memphis have operated below zero before. No draft restriction was posted anywhere we checked as of July 31: the notice feed we collect, the Corps' notices system, and the St. Louis District's July 29 channel report, so draft planning against these forecasts stays implication rather than instruction.

Locks: daytime closures land next week

Ahead, the calendar is not empty. The Corps' notices system carries Lock 19 shut 06:00 to 18:00 weekdays, August 3 to 21, for pier coring ahead of winter construction, with nights and weekends open, and Lock 25 shut 07:00 to 19:00 on August 4 and 6 for protection-cell repair. Both are on the Upper Mississippi.

Emsworth on the Ohio has been under an amended notice since July 6 covering both chambers, and Barkley Lock on the Cumberland closes August 10 through September 30.

Demand: grain moving early

Downbound grain rose a fifth straight week, to 2.37 million tons in the week ending July 25, up 11.7% on the week and 71.7% above the June 20 trough. That is consistent with shippers pulling movement forward ahead of the low water; that is an inference, and the countercase is that it is ordinary seasonal timing. Tons moved early are tons borrowed from the harvest peak.