Rates up a fifth week with September quoted 14 to 41% higher, and the first low-water advisory is posted

The forward curve re-dated the squeeze to September

USDA's forward quotes rolled this week: one month out now quotes September, three months out quotes November, and October is not quoted at all, so no same-month comparison to last week exists. The shape is the story. September is quoted 14 to 41% above current across the seven origin regions, steepest on Cairo to Memphis at 41%, the origin that loads through the falling mid-river. November is quoted back within −2 to +8% of current at every origin. Sellers are asking a premium for the squeeze and pricing its release: a September to October peak that passes.

These are percent-of-tariff quotes by origin region, a different unit and geography from the dollar-per-ton table above, and the two are never combined. The whole structure rests on a river forecast that has already broken once: last week's quotes priced October at up to 44% over spot before this week's rain arrived.

The model caught the print

Last week the market ran $2.15 ahead of our estimate of barge rates from river levels, season and fuel. This week the model catches the print almost exactly: $19.07 estimated against $19.28 observed, a $0.22 gap. The froth is gone; the water explains the price. On weeks it hasn't seen, that estimate lands within about $5.26 a ton of actual, widening to about $9.41 in drought.

The rate-pressure index across all 26 reporting segments held at 100 of 100 a second week, and the corridor runs 66% above its seasonal baseline of $11.59, a baseline that itself stepped up from $9.01 as the calendar moves toward harvest. The model's forward view adds a modest $0.31 a ton as its low-water severity input rises from 0.80 to 0.86.

River conditions: the rain buys until mid-August

Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO (NWS EADM7): 7.5 ft stage on August 7, up 5.3 ft from its July 30 low. The forecast issued August 6 crests near 8.0 ft August 8 to 9, then falls without interruption: below 0 ft around August 17, through the district's −0.5 ft Cliff Cave controlling-depth threshold around August 18, to −1.4 ft by August 21, deeper than anything in last week's forecast.

Mississippi River at Memphis, TN (NWS MEMT1): −0.8 ft stage on August 7. Memphis crossed below zero on August 3, four days earlier than forecast, and bottomed at −1.1 ft. The pulse lifts it above zero from about August 8 to 14, then the forecast falls hard: −1.9 ft by August 18 and −4.1 ft by August 21, the deepest reading of the season.

Mississippi River at Vicksburg, MS (NWS VCKM6): 12.1 ft stage on August 7, down 6.4 ft in a week. It reached the level last week's forecast had for August 21 two weeks early; the new forecast flattens near 12 ft as the pulse passes.

What changed this week is that thin water stopped being implication. The Coast Guard Captain of the Port New Orleans issued a Low Water Safety Advisory effective August 3, the first formal low-water posting of the season in the feeds we collect, covering the Lower Mississippi from mile 167 to mile 303. Its provisions are advisory rather than hard limits: adjust tow sizes and loading drafts to decreasing depths, transit in the charted channel, staff with the most experienced crews. The trigger is the Baton Rouge gauge falling through 12 ft; it read 10.5 ft on August 6. The weather splits the difference: the Climate Prediction Center's August 7 outlooks give above-normal precipitation chances from the Central Plains through the Mid-Atlantic for August 13 to 17, then near-to-below-normal through the Mississippi Valley for August 15 to 21.

Locks: the first closure week doubled Lock 25's wait, and the calendar thickens

Over arrivals July 31 to August 6, the longest average waits at completed lockages were Emsworth at 471 minutes (n=66, 90th percentile 1,488 minutes; its auxiliary chamber is closed through September 4 and its primary chamber runs intermittent closures averaging 17 hours a day), Lock and Dam 25 at 446 minutes (n=111, up from 235 the week before), LaGrange at 383, and Lock 19 at 330, up from 51 before its weekday daytime closures began August 3. Levels from a series that began in May 2026.

Next week stacks higher. The St. Louis District's August 5 channel report extends Lock 25's 07:00 to 19:00 closures to August 10 through 19; the July 29 report had listed only August 4 and 6. Lock 19's weekday closures run through August 21. Barkley Lock closes August 10 through September 30, with the alternate route via Kentucky Lock and the Barkley Canal, and Smithland begins controls-upgrade closures August 24 with one chamber always open. All three district dredges remain out, but the report now schedules Dredge Goetz at the Lock 24 tailwater around August 14 and the Lock 25 tailwater around August 20, with both flagged probable-problematic at 9-ft depth from August 12 and 15: the shoal is expected before the dredge.

Demand: the flow went flat and the empties stopped going up

Downbound grain through the tracked count points held at 2.37 million tons in the week ending August 1, dead flat after five weekly rises. The mix moved: Locks 27, the last count point above St. Louis, fell 13%, while Olmsted on the Ohio nearly tripled. Upbound empty barges at Locks 27 fell to 289, down 32% and below even the late-June trough; operators spent five weeks staging capacity upriver, and in the week the advisory posted, they stopped. Gulf export inspections rose a third straight report, to 1.20 million tons.

Midwest diesel printed $5.262 a gallon on August 3, up 6.6¢ on the week after July's 20.8¢ and 32.9¢ jumps, and 18% above the July 6 trough. The cost squeeze is still two-sided, more fuel per ton on lighter drafts at a higher price per gallon, but the price side stopped accelerating.